Molnupiravir versus Paxlovid

This repository provides the code and data underlying the molnupiravir versus ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir (paxlovid) versus no study drug comparison in the PLATCOV trial. The clinical paper is available as a preprint: “Molnupiravir versus ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir; a randomised controlled adaptive trial comparison of antiviral effects in early symptomatic COVID-19 (PLATCOV)”

Overview

The primary three-way analysis is given in the file Molnupiravir_analysis.qmd. This constructs the mITT population, makes a baseline characteristics table, sets up the data for the analysis, and then plots the outputs. It also looks at fever clearance and time to symptom resolution. All models are run in stan and the stan code is provided in the folder Stan_models. The data are provided in the folder Analysis_Data.

The main result is Figure 2 in the paper:

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In addition, the file Meta_analysis_IPD.qmd runs a meta-analysis of all unblinded patients randomised to small molecule drugs in the PLATCOV trial since the start of platform (same site, but not all randomised concurrently). We add a slope/intercept covariate for trial epoch (defined as times when interventions entered or left the platform) to adjust for possible temporal confounding. The main result is Figure 5 in the paper showing a ranking of the antiviral druigs (effects relative to no study drug arm):

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Any questions or bugs spotted send me a msg at jwatowatson at gmail dot com